Every so often someone sends me a San Carlos sale that closed 30% over asking, with the same question. How do I get that?
The honest answer starts with the list price, not the house. A home that sells 30% over asking usually wasn’t worth 30% more than anyone expected. Its list price was set below the market’s number, often on purpose, to fill the first weekend with buyers.
Pricing low works often enough here that a lot of sellers treat it as the default. It isn’t automatic. So I pulled every home sale that closed in San Carlos over the past year to see when it works and when it doesn’t.
One city, very different results
From Nov. 3, 2025, to Nov. 3, 2026, 332 homes sold in San Carlos: 263 single-family homes and 69 condos and townhouses. List-price strategy shows up most clearly in the single-family homes, so most of what follows is about them.
Of those 263, 167 sold over asking. Thirty-five sold 20% or more over, the highest at 54%. And 62 sold under list price.
| Sale price vs. list price | Single-family homes |
|---|---|
| Under 97% of list | 37 |
| 97% to just under list | 25 |
| At list price | 34 |
| Over list, by less than 5% | 44 |
| 5% to under 10% over | 37 |
| 10% to under 20% over | 51 |
| 20% to under 30% over | 26 |
| 30% or more over | 9 |
| Total | 263 |
The first two weeks decide it
This is the pattern that matters most. Every one of the 35 homes that sold 20% or more over asking sold after 14 or fewer days on market. Most of them took a week or less.
| Days on market | Homes | Median sale vs. list | Sold under list |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–7 | 99 | 109.3% | 2 |
| 8–14 | 83 | 106.9% | 8 |
| 15–30 | 40 | 98.3% | 22 |
| 31–60 | 29 | 97.2% | 22 |
| 61 or more | 12 | 98.2% | 8 |
Homes that sold within two weeks went for a median of 107.9% of list. Homes still on the market after two weeks sold for a median of 97.5%, and 52 of those 81 sold under list. Not one of them sold 20% over.
Not every home in that second group was priced low. Some were priced high from the start. The lesson holds either way: after two weeks, buyers stop competing and start negotiating. A low list price is a bet on the first two weekends. If enough buyers show up, they bid one another past the market’s number. If they don’t, the low price becomes the starting point for negotiation.
That’s why the launch matters as much as the number. I wrote more about it in The first two weeks: why your home’s launch window decides the sale.
It works less often as the price goes up
| List price | Homes | Median sale vs. list | Sold 20%+ over | Sold under list |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $2M | 59 | 106.8% | 17 | 13 |
| $2M to $2.5M | 63 | 106.0% | 8 | 14 |
| $2.5M to $3M | 81 | 104.2% | 9 | 14 |
| $3M to $4M | 44 | 100.1% | 1 | 15 |
| $4M and up | 16 | 100.1% | 0 | 6 |
Below $3 million, 34 of 203 homes sold 20% or more over asking. At $3 million and up, one of 60 did. At $4 million and up, the median sale landed within a fraction of a percent of list, and six of 16 sold under it.
The reason is simple: fewer buyers compete at the top. A bidding war needs several buyers who want the same house the same weekend. At $2 million in San Carlos, that happens often. At $4 million, the buyer pool is much thinner, and a price under value is more likely to invite a lower offer than a bidding war. How I launch those homes is on my sellers page.
Condos and townhouses play by different rules
The 52 condos that sold went for a median of 99.6% of list, and 27 sold under list. Their median time on market was 16.5 days, compared with nine for single-family homes. The 17 townhouses did better, at a median of 106.1%. Across all 69 condos and townhouses, only one sold 20% over asking.
A condo priced low to start a bidding war usually sells close to that lower price. For most condos, I price where the comps point.
When the price comes down
Twenty-nine single-family sellers cut their price before selling. The median cut was 5.3%. Those homes sold for a median of 91.5% of their original list price, after a median of 47 days on market.
A price cut is the expensive way to get the number right. By then the first two weeks are gone, and buyers know it.
What this means for your list price
- Pricing low is a launch plan, not a discount. It works only when the house is ready on day one: prepared, staged and photographed, with disclosures out and an offer date set.
- It fits where buyers are deep. In San Carlos this year, that meant single-family homes under about $3 million.
- Above that, and for most condos, price at value. Then defend the number with preparation and marketing.
- Only list at a price you could live with. If the offers come in near list, you should be content to accept one. Otherwise you’re gambling with the house.
- Don’t read a big overbid as a verdict. It mostly tells you where the list price started. I explain why in The overbid number tells you almost nothing.
I build three pricing scenarios for every listing, and the one I recommend depends on your price range, your property type and how ready the house is. If you’re thinking about selling in the spring, I’ll pull these numbers for your street and price range. Call or text me at (650) 866-9266.
Source: MLSListings Inc. Residential sales in San Carlos that closed Nov. 3, 2025, through Nov. 3, 2026, pulled from MLSListings Matrix by Elaine Li. Sale vs. list compares the final sale price with the list price at the time of sale. Days on market are as reported by MLSListings. Price ranges include their lower bound. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Past sales don’t predict the result for any one home.
