Dreamforce is back this week, and San Francisco has that familiar energy again — Moscone packed, calendars full, and somehow half the conversations circling back to AI.
I spent six and a half years at Salesforce and have been going to Dreamforce for more than a decade, so the week still feels a little nostalgic. Old colleagues, big ideas, too many badges.
And one question kept coming up, inside Moscone and outside it: if the AI boom cools, what happens to Peninsula real estate?
The last pullback is the closest thing to an answer
Nobody knows. But we have watched a tech cycle turn before, and the part most people get wrong is what they expect on the other side of it. The assumption is that a tech slowdown produces discounts.
That is not what happened. Buyers stepped back — and sellers stepped back with them. Fewer people shopping, but also fewer people willing to list a house they financed at a rate they will not see again, or to trade a home they liked for an uncertain market.
The market did not get cheap. It got quiet. Those are different things, and only one of them helps a buyer.
A softer cycle can mean fewer bidding wars and more room to negotiate. It can also mean fewer homes worth wanting. When both sides of the market thin out at the same time, the buyer’s advantage is a lot smaller than the headline suggests.
Right now, it is not quiet
August single-family homes, six Peninsula cities, listed north to south — Millbrae down to Redwood City:
| City | Median Sale Price | Sold | Months of Inventory | Sale vs. List | Avg Days on Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millbrae | $1.7M | 9 | 1.3 | 114.3% | 8 |
| Burlingame | $3.1M | 13 | 1.3 | 111.8% | 10 |
| San Mateo | $2.1M | 32 | 1.0 | 109.5% | 26 |
| Belmont | $2.6M | 14 | 1.6 | 106.3% | 28 |
| San Carlos | $2.8M | 15 | 1.2 | 107.1% | 20 |
| Redwood City | $2.25M | 25 | 1.8 | 107.9% | 23 |
For context, San Mateo County as a whole closed 328 single-family sales in August at a median of $2 million, 106.9% of list, 25 days on market, and 1.5 months of inventory. Every one of the six cities above beat the county on overbid.
Compared with the figures I published in July, two things are true in that table at once.
The market did loosen. Months of inventory rose in every one of these cities, and homes took longer to sell in five of the six. San Mateo nearly doubled its average days on market. Belmont is out to 28 days. That is the softening people keep asking about, and it is real.
And the competition held anyway. Every city still closed above asking. In Millbrae, Burlingame, Belmont, San Carlos, and Redwood City the sale-to-list percentage went up rather than down — even as those same homes sat longer. More listings, more time, and the good ones still going over ask. That is not a market rolling over. That is a market with more to choose from and the same short list of homes people actually want.
A word on the medians
Look at the sold column before you read too much into any median. Millbrae’s $1.7 million rests on nine sales. San Carlos’s $2.8 million rests on 15. At counts like that, which houses happened to close is the whole story — Millbrae did not lose $600,000 of value in 30 days, it sold a different set of houses. Sale-to-list and days on market hold up better month to month, which is why I lead with them.
What I would actually watch
I would not build a buying strategy around predicting when the AI cycle turns. The people at Moscone this week are closer to it than I am, and they do not know either.
I would watch something much narrower and far more useful: how much competition there is for the specific home you want, right now. Not the county. Not the sector. The house.
That part is knowable. How many people came through the last two open houses on that street. Whether the most recent comparable sale drew one offer or nine. Whether the well-prepared homes in that price band are gone in a week or still sitting after a month. Those numbers move before the countywide ones do, and they are what decides what you pay.
If the cycle does soften, you will see it there first — in one neighborhood, in one price band — long before it shows up in a median.
So the honest answer to the Dreamforce question is: wait for the tech news and you will be reacting to something that already happened. Watch the competition for your house instead.
If you are weighing a Peninsula purchase and want to know what that competition actually looks like for the kind of home you are describing, call or text me at 650-866-9266. I will pull the recent comps for that street and tell you honestly whether it is a crowded lane or a quiet one.
And to my Salesforce friends at Moscone this week — have fun. I still miss the energy.
Single-family figures from the KW Advisors San Mateo County Market Report, September 2026 edition (August 2026 activity), sourced from MLS Listings Inc., InfoSparks, and Trend Graphix. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
